Management
of prolonged transition period: A Security perspective
Perspective shared at the 2 days
Seminar entitled National Security Challenges During the transitional Period
and Way Forward for Nepal” organized by Army Command and Staff College,
Shivapuri on 13 April 2021.
Bishnu Raj Upreti
(PhD-Conflict Management)
2021 April 13
Management
of prolonged transition period: A Security perspective
1.
Context
Broadly
speaking, Nepal has long history of political transitions right after the
unification of modern Nepal under the leadership of the King Prithivi Narayan
Shah, the Great (Upreti, 2021), which was continued in different regimes such
as Shah dynasty, 104 years of the Raja Regime, Post-Rana democratic era,
Panchayat regime, multi-party democratic system, to present day.
Though
the situation after promulgation of the constitution by the Constituent
Assembly and successful elections of three tiers of the governments (federal,
provincial and local) is changed, the residual effects remained and even new
complications are arising.
If
we look the history of recent past 2 decades, Nepal has passed from the rough
security situation posed by armed groups. We have observed up to 139-armed
groups active and posing security challenges (Upreti, 2009). In addition to the
security threats from different bigger and smaller armed groups, ethnic
radicalization was another source of insecurity during that time (Upreti, 2014).
Even
though the armed insurrection led by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) was
ended with the signing of the Compressive Peace Agreement in 21 November 2006,
the security threats and uncertainties were not ended. Instead, insecurity
prevailed in different modes and scales. Nepali society had experienced
insecurity even from the militant groups formed by the political parties (ibid)
and posed massive psychological insecurity, which is quite influential in
shaping action and behaviour of general people.
Since
the concept of psychological insecurity was introduced Maslow and team (Maslow
et., al. 1945), the feeling of safety, freedom from fear & anxiety and
anticipated risk or danger (in short psychological fear) became part of
security concern (Taormina and Sun 2015). As feeling of security-insecurity is
being a psychological in nature, even in the recent past Nepali people feel
psychological insecurity from the different protests and coercive political
activities.
While
taking to the psychological insecurity, major concerns were related to the
behaviour of political forces in violating the preventive measure to the COVID
pandemics. The fundamental measures suggested to prevent from the COVID
pandemics were a) wearing masks, b) marinating physical (social) distance (of
at least 1 or 1.5 meter) and c) washing hands. However, the optical forces organized
series of huge mass rallies across the country violating these COVID19 protocols.
Doctors and public health experts were frequently waring that politicians took
great risks by organizing and brining mass of people to attend the rallies.
Largely, ordinary people were observing the COVID protocols. However, they were
confused once large-scale mass rallies were organised one after another in
different parts of the country. Consequently, whether right or wrong, a general
psyche developed from these events that the COVID did not affect thousands of
people attending the mass rallies without following any COVID10 protocols (which
is also referend as heard immunity?) and therefore COVID will not affect us as
well even if we violet protocols. Citing this example, I argue that feeling of psychological
security-insecurity matters and shapes behaviour of general people because
perception of security and or insecurity is social and behavioural
construction. The transitional security therefore needs to view in this
context.
One
of the major concerns of any prolonged transition is ensuring security because
different interests groups use the fluid situation to fulfil their vested
political, economic and personal interests. Hence, one of the prime focuses of
the management of prolong transition is management of security.
In
this paper, I have used ‘prolong transition’ to refer general political ups and
downs in managing Nepali politics and their multi-dimensional consequences in
society, politics, economy, people’s life & livelihoods and state functioning
(including service delivery).
2.
Concept
Conceptually
in the context of this paper, a transition is a period between two
political contexts in the process of democratisation emerged from the change of
the existing context, where most of the established systems, legal provisions,
procedures, norms and institutions are thrown away and new are not yet fully
operational or partially operational leading to gap or even vacuum. Hence,
situation of potential for insecurity, instability, tensions, mistrust,
manipulations and horse-trading, mal-governance, violation of laws, and
different anomalies remains. The political transition was first theorize from
the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America (Acemoglu & Robinson,
2001).
In
case of Nepal, defining exact transition period is quite difficult and
contested. However, for the purpose of this paper, the term transition is a
period between singing the CPA and present time. So all political activities
and consequent insecurities and or threats are considered as transitional
security issues.
In
the context of post conflict context, transition management is set of
procedures, tools and strategies to guide and govern the instable political
situation by developing appropriate capacity to deal with or respond to insecurity, political instability, societal tensions, prevalent
mistrust, vested interests based manipulations and horse-trading,
mal-governance, violation of laws, and other anomalies.
3.
Issues
and concerns
Several
interrelated security related issues and concerns appear in the situation of
transition. Some of the main security issues and concerns are discussed in this
section.
3.1 Politicization and neutrality
dilemma:
Politicization is a major character
of transition, especially in post conflict transition in developing countries.
Nepal is precise example of politicization where political interests override
standard procedural aspects (for example, dividing constitutional positions
among the political parties/leaders, political backup or protection to their
supporters ignoring standard set procedures, positive discriminations to their supporters and negative biases
towards those who do not belong to their parties. This is established phenomena
in Nepal and now became socially accepted political culture.
3.2 Main public security issues:
Human security is a prime concern
in the time of transition, which covers food security, water security, health
security, water security, environmental security, social security. Political parties are very selective in
interpreting and practicing public security issues. The Human security is very
complex and therefore requires comprehensive, coordinated and concerted
response strategy, which is blatantly lacking in the transitional situation of
Nepal.
3.3 Dilemma of law-enforcement
agencies:
In the transition period, one of
the operational difficulties observed was the dilemma of security forces. In
one side, the security forces have the responsivity for law enforcement. On the
other hand, they cannot control VVIPS and VIPS violating COVID related protocols.
For example, major political parties of Nepal recently organized several mass
meetings, rallies[1],[2]
and protests[3]
against the protocol of COVID19[4].
Government authorities were appealing general public to stay away from mass
gatherings and follow the health protocol of Ministry of Health and Population
as preventive measure from COVID infection[5]
which neither political parties nor people attending the gatherings respected
the appeal. Security forces alone cannot control sources of insecurity if key
stakeholders (such as political parties, local communities, etc.) do not
cooperate.
3.4 Ensuring public security:
Public security in general deals on
protection of people, public and private properties and specific territories.
The main aim of public security is to achieve welling of citizens and prosperity
of community through ensuring people’s feeling of safe and secure. Even though
ensuring public security is the primary function of state, achieving it
requires concerted action of government, security forces and public. Public
safety is also part of public security. The main legal instrument for ensuring
public security in Nepal is the Public Security Act, 2046 (1989) (with four
amendments[6]) which is still narrow in scope, and
focuses on control then preventive measures.
3.5 Stability and security:
Political behaviour is directly
related to stability in the context of transition. According to Ake (1975),
political behaviour is an act by members of society that affects distribution
of power to make decision for that society. In this context, the power
relations shape behaviour of member of society and therefore it is ubiquitous
in nature. Hence, Nepal is not an exception. However, political behaviour once
starts disobeying standard social norms and procedures of state, problem starts
and it severely affects economic aspects of the country.
In the context of
armed conflict and civil war, literatures often refer either state failure or
political stability and instability (Zartman, 1995; Cojanu and Popescu, 2007; 2010). They
highlights that the situation if instability comes when the state structures
are not able to properly perform the functions assigned to them (Zartman, 1995;
Cojanu and Popescu, 2007). However, the situation of Nepal is not state
failure. Instead, Nepal’s situation is the selective political obstructions in
proper functioning of some of the responsibilities of security and other
structures like not respecting COVID19 protocol of Ministry of health and
Populations or attacking security forces on duties, etc.
In this context, Mădălina (2015)
has analysed the influence of political stability on economic growth in Romania
and concluded that political stability is a condition for sustainable economic
growth of the country. This applies everywhere. Hence, if Nepal is not able to
achieve political stability, for which security is integral part, achieving
economic growth and graduating from least developed country will be affected.
3.6 Security governance, transition
and modernization of security:
In dealing of security at the time
of prolong transition; strengthening of security institutions is important.
Strengthening security institutions means improving security governance,
modernizing and professionalizing security forces, increasing transparency and accountability,
developing capacity of security intuitions and enhancing people-security forces
relations.
3.7
Adequacy and or deficiency in transitional security:
Adequacy and or deficiency in
policy, strategy, legal provisions, financial and hum resources matters in
achieving transitional security. Adequate legal arrangements, conducive
policies, availability of financial and competent human resources are some
important conditions for effectiveness of security providers and ensuring
security service at the time of prolonged transition. Similarly, attitude and
behaviour of the security providers and security beneficiaries collectively
determines the effectiveness of managing security.
3.8
Role of media and sense of responsibility:
Role of media is crucial in shaping
sense of security or insecurity and it is even truer in transition. Experiences
from different context show that the effects of audio-visual media is higher in
creating security and or insecurity compared to print media and most
influential is the social media. Wrong use of social media can be disastrous. Mass exodus of North Indian
population form Bangalore and inflamed sentiments of people against killing of militant Burhan Wani in
Kashmir were clear example of how danger is the role of media
in propagation of wrong information and or dissemination of malicious
information by social media[7].
3.9
External support in transition:
One of the important lessons to
learn is to adapt very cautious approach on external support in post conflict
transition. The examples of two West African cases – Sierra Leone and Nigeria’s
oil-rich Niger Delta clearly demonstrate that externally supported
reconstruction projects bring so many global hegemonic discourses and creates
complications (Arowosegbe, 2011). Likewise,
the work of Robert Muggah provides an analysis external interventions in post conflict security
context of Afghanistan, Timor Leste, Sudan, Uganda, Colombia and Haiti by
focusing on disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), and
security-sector reform (SSR) from which it can be generalized that the international aid in post conflict
security context are conventional in
their approaches and therefore not only ineffective but also not able to
address the transitional security challenges (Muggah, 2008). Hence, Nepal needs a very cautious
approach while accepting international support in security sector.
3.10
Public Security Management in Post-Conflict transition:
As country is still affected by the
shadow of the armed conflict and its consequences, public security management
is a concern of Nepali people. Some of
the main issues in managing security are enforcement of laws, administration of
justice and maintenance of public order, properly handling the shared function
between federal, provincial and local levels (federal security structures to
enforce federal laws, provincial security structures to enforce state laws,
etc.) dealing with diversity within unity framework, exercising democratic
values and norms, concerted action to achieve win-win outcomes in contested
issues, promoting local solutions for local problems.
3.11
Strengthening operational security in post- conflict transition:
One of the most important issues is
to strengthen operational security and inter-institutional coordination, which
is often neglected in the context of post conflict transition (Arowosegbe,
2011). Management of post conflict transition is not only complex but also
requires knowledge, resources and commitments (Upreti, 2012 and 2009).
3.12
Deficiency in shared responsibility in managing transition:
It is observed that some of the
major issues and concerns related to managing security during the prolong
transition are mainly operational they are relate to effective coordination and
collaboration between different agencies working in ensuring security, proper
coordination across the three tiers of government (both horizontal and vertical
coordination), lack of required resource allocation.
4.
Security
decision in managing transition:
Making decision in managing
transition is quite important and this can be explained by the following
quadrant:
|
Importance |
|
|
|
|
Urgent (focus
on actions to be performed immediately and if not contained it will create
complexity) |
Not urgent (the
activities to be closely watch but no immediate action is needed) |
||
|
Important (focus
on the outcomes and contributions to mission, values and priority goals) |
Urgent and important: This is the most
important and most urgent and therefore get first priority. In this quadrant
security, actors and transition managers have to concentrate their efforts
with priority and resources. |
Not urgent but
important:
therefore security and transition mangers and decision makers have to take
action to control from escalation, even if they are not immediate
threats |
|
|
Not important (watch
closely but do not keep in priority for immediate action) |
Urgent and not
important: Security actions have
to be accomplished urgently but it is not so important so the security
decision makers have to accomplish these activities immediately with low
priority. |
Not urgent and not
important:
The security decision makers can wait to see how context develops but no need
to take immediate action. Only essential to be vigilant and alert but no
immediate action needed. |
|
Source: Adapted from Convey, S. (1989),
The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful lessons in personal
change. New York: Simon and Schuster.
In
the situation of transition, the security decision makers have to assess the
degree of importance and urgency and make decision accordingly.
5.
Existing
security mechanisms and practices
The existing security
management in dealing with the prolong transition is guided by combination of
different legal, political, security, economic mechanisms. The legal framework
provides basis for ensuring security by mobilising state security forces. Some
example of the legal arrangements[8]
are the Constitution of Nepal, Army
Act 2063 (2006) (with different amendments), National Security Policy 2075;
Police Act 2012 (1955) (with different amendments) and Police Regulation, 2049
(1992), मुलुकी
अपराध संहिता २०७४, सु शासन (व्यवस्थापन तथा संचालन ऐन २०६४ (with different amendments); Armed Police Force Act 2058 (2001) (with different
amendments) and Armed Police Force Regulation, 2060 (2003), Nepal Special
Service Act 2042 (1985) (with different amendments), Public Security Act 2046
(1989) (with different amendments); The
Privacy Act, 2075 (2018); The Espionage Act, 2018 (1962) (with different
amendments); Nepal Special Service Act, 2042 (1985) (with different
amendments); Offence Against State And Punishment Act, 2046 (1989) (with
different amendments); The Essential Goods Control (Empowerment) Act, 2017
(1961) (with different amendments); The Essential Services Mobilization Act,
2014 (1957) (with different amendments); The State Cases Act, 2049 (1992) (with
different amendments); Some Public (Offences And Penalties) Act, 2027 (1970)
(with different amendments), and many more. State security forces ae guided by
the state’s legal arrangements.
Other related acts and
regulations shaping the management of transitional security are the Extradition
Act, 2055 (1989) (with different amendments); The Immigration Act, 2049 (1992)
(with different amendments) and the Immigration Regulation, 2051 (1994), the
Passport Act, 2024 (1997) (with different amendments) and the Passport
Regulations, 2059; (2003); Explosive Substance Act, 2018 (1961) (with different
amendments); Arms and Ammunition Act, 2019 (1963) (with different amendments)
and Arms and Ammunition Regulation, 1972 (Phuyal, 2009).
Further political
commitments and contradictions form different political parties and actors, availability
of security forces and their capabilities, economic interests of various groups
and actors are other importance factors affecting transitional security. Within
the above-described context, efforts have been made in dealing with current
transition.
6.
Challenges
·
Balancing
between native and exotic concepts
·
Country’s
need v/s external interests
·
Guided
emotion (people/activists) v/s perceived threats (security apparatus)
·
Intelligence
and information
·
Public
trust v/s mistrust
·
Transitional Justice v/s reconciliation
·
public
security management
·
interests
of regional and international actors
·
Freedom
of expression v/s sense of responsibility
·
Transparency
v/s confidentiality
7.
Conclusions
and ways forward
When
we discuss Management of prolonged transition period from the security
perspective, so many interrelated concepts are often referred such as political
development (including party building), democratization (including
democratization of political parties), state building (including post-conflict
reconstruction and peacebuilding), institutional innovations and responsive
public polices, effective resource mobilization, good governance and so on.
They are easily said than done. Translation of these concepts need political
commitment and bureaucratic efficiency.
Following
points could make the basis for ways forward:
·
Building
Local Capacity for Maintaining Public Security
·
Strengthen
rule of law, legitimacy and ownership
·
Analysing
the exotic concepts, external interests and domestic power dynamics and forge
the strategy accordingly
·
Deal
with mistrust and hypersensitivity about the perceived security threats
(sensitizing, engagement and collaboration); civil-security relations.
·
Strengthen
Intelligence and security analysis by acquiring right information from right
sources at right time,
·
Balancing
between transparency and confidentiality while managing prolong transition.
References
1.
Acemoglu, D., &
Robinson, J. (2001). A Theory of Political Transitions. The American
Economic Review, 91(4), 938-963. Retrieved March 6, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2677820
2.
Ake, C. (1975). A
Definition of Political Stability. Comparative Politics, 7(2),
271-283. doi:10.2307/421552
3. Arowosegbe, J.O. (2011). State reconstruction in
post-conflict Africa: The relevance of Ake's political thought, Economic and
Political Weekly 46(19):60-67.
4. Cojanu, V.
and Popescu, A. (2007), ‘Analysis of Failed States: Some Problems of Definition
and Measurement,’ Romanian Economic Journal 10(25), p.115
5.
Mădălina,
R. (2015), Political stability - a condition for sustainable growth in Romania?
Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 751 – 757. doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01324-6
6.
(2010) Understanding Political Stability and Instability. Civil Wars, 12(3), 326-345, DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2010.509568
7.
Muggah, Robert (2008), Security and Post-Conflict
Reconstruction: Dealing with Fighters in the Aftermath of War. London:
Taylor & Francis.
8.
Phuyal, H. (ed.)
(2009), The Security Sector Legislation of the Federal Democratic Republic of
Nepal. Geneva: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces.
9.
Taormina
R. J. and Sun R. (2015), Antecedents and Outcomes of Psychological Insecurity
and Interpersonal Trust among Chinese People. Psychological Thought,
Vol. 8(2), 173–188 doi:10.5964/psyct.v8i2.143.
10.
Upreti, B. R. (2009), Nepal from War to
Peace: Legacies of the past and hopes for future. New Delhi: Adroit
Publishers.
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Upreti, B. R. (2012), Nepal from War to
Peace. Peace Review: A Journal of Social
Justice, 24:1, 102-107.
12.
Upreti, B. (2021, February 23). Nepal: The
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2021, from
https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1839.
13.
Upreti,
BR, (2014), Nationalism and Militarization in Nepal: Reactive Response or
Long-Term Phenomenon? Asian Journal of
Peacebuilding Vol. 2 No. 2 (2014): 217-239
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W. (ed.) (1995), Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration
of Legitimate Authority. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
[1]
https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2020/12/15/congress-holds-mass-rallies-to-proclaim-it-s-back-in-business-but-is-it
[2]
https://english.khabarhub.com/2021/21/164512/
[3]
https://thehimalayantimes.com/kathmandu/dahal-nepal-factions-mass-gathering-today-movement-largely-obstructed-in-the-capital
[4]
https://kathmandupost.com/valley/2021/02/11/whether-it-s-demonstration-by-oli-or-dahal-it-s-always-citizens-who-suffer
[5]
https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/local-administration-in-kathmandu-urges-people-not-to-participate-in-rallies-protests/
[6]
http://www.lawcommission.gov.np/en/archives/category/documents/prevailing-law/statutes-acts/public-security-act-2046-1989
[7] See
details in https://www.objectiveias.in/role-of-social-media-in-internal-security/
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