Management of prolonged transition: A security
perspective
Bishnu Raj Upreti
PhD-Conflict Management
Abstract: 150 words
Maintaining security at the time of political
transition is one of the major concerns of law enforcement agencies as they
have to deal with very uncertain, confusing and contradictory situations.
Violation of laws and order by those who have made these laws and regulations
create most difficult circumstance for managing insecurity. Different types of
insecurity creators become active during the time of transition with or some time without protect from power
centres and create fear, insecurity to ordinary citizen. Such groups are more
active in cities and border areas. Hence, one of the most important strategy to
cope with such source of insecurity is the collective political commitment for
non-interference to state security forces, as well as their proactive
engagement in maintain law and order, helping stake actors.
Key words: armed-groups, insecurity, society, transition,
threats
1. Background
Broadly speaking, Nepal has a long history of
political transitions right after the unification of modern Nepal under the
leadership of the King Prithivi Narayan Shah, the Great (Upreti, 2021), which
was continued in different regimes such as Shah dynasty, 104 years of the Rana
Regime, Post-Rana democratic era, Panchayat regime, multi-party democratic period,
to present day at different degree, time period and intesntiy.
Though the situation after promulgation of the
constitution by the Constituent Assembly and successful elections of three
tiers (federal, provincial and local) of the governments is changed, various residual
effects and consequences remained and many new complications are arising.
Even if we look the history of only recent past
3 decades, Nepal has passed from the rough and tough security situation posed
by armed groups. We have observed up to 139-armed groups active in the country
(mainly at the southern border areas) and they were posing different level of security
challenges in society (Upreti, 2009). In addition to the security threats from
different bigger and smaller armed groups, ethnic radicalization was another
source of insecurity during that time (Upreti,
2014). In many instances, youth wings of political parties were also creating insecurity
in society.
Even though the armed insurrection led by the Communist
Party of Nepal (Maoist) was ended with signing of the Compressive Peace
Agreement (CPA) in 21 November 2006, the security threats were not ended for
long, almost a decade. Even after the implementations of CPA provisions through
the promulgation of the Constitution of Nepal in 2015 and completion of the two
rounds of elections, the security threats and uncertainties prevail in subtle
form or in a latent or open way in different parts of the countries mainly when
the politely forces protect/backup the insecurity creators. Insecurity is still
prevailed in different modes and scales in Nepali society mainly from
politically protected groups or criminal gangs and have posed massive
psychological insecurity, which is quite influential in shaping action and
behaviour of general people.
2. Objectives of the study
Main objective of this paper is to engage in
wider and informed debate on the dealing with complications of prolonged
transition that will ultimately help to the key stakeholders to manage it
appropriately.
3. Literature review
Once concept of psychological insecurity was
introduced by Maslow and his team (Maslow et., al. 1945), the feeling of
safety, freedom from fear & anxiety and anticipated risk or danger (in
short psychological fear) became part of security concern (Taormina and Sun
2015). As feeling of security-insecurity is being a psychological in nature,
even in the recent past Nepali people feel psychological insecurity from the
different protests and coercive political activities.
While taking to psychological insecurity, major
concerns were not only related to behaviour of some people in violating the
preventive measure to the COVID pandemics and not respecting the established
security provision but also engaged in violent activities that pose feeling of
fear to people. Organized pick-pocketing, hooliganism, petty crimes, bags snatching,
street crimes, shoplifting, disorderly conducts, in the crowed city areas to
money laundering, drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms smugglings,
terrorism, vehicle theft, banditry at the border areas (Upreti, 2014). Socially
unwanted and legally unacceptable activities carried out by wide range of
people common sources of insecurity in society. Citing these examples, I argue
that feeling of psychological insecurity shapes behaviour of general people as perception
of insecurity is social and behavioural construct in a given context. The
transitional security therefore needs to view in this context.
One of the major concerns of any prolonged
transition is ensuring security because different interests groups use the
fluid situation to fulfil their vested political, economic and personal
interests. Hence, one of the prime focuses of the management of prolong
transition is management of security.
The operational definition of
transition for this paper refers to the period where a political regime
(monarchy) is replaced by another (republic) but not fully functional due to
activities of supporters’ previous regime or opportunists or special group of
people getting extra undue benefit from the changes. In this paper, I have used
‘prolong transition’ to refer general political ups and downs in managing
Nepali politics and their multi-dimensional consequences in society, politics,
economy, people’s life & livelihoods and state functioning (including
service delivery).
Conceptually a transition is a period
between two political process of democratisation emerged from the political,
social, constitutional and contextual changes, where most of the established
systems, legal provisions, procedures, norms and institutions are abolished and
new arrangements are not yet fully functional or partially operational leading
to gap or even vacuum (Upreti, 2014). Hence, this situation is suitable for
potential for perceived or actual insecurity, instability, tensions, mistrust,
manipulations and horse-trading, mal-governance, violation of laws, and
anomalies. The political transition was first theorized from the experiences of
Western Europe and Latin America (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2001).
In case of Nepal, defining exact transition
period is quite difficult and contested because of the fuzzy boundaries of
these changes. However, for the purpose of this paper I have defined the term
transition as ‘a period between singing of the CPA and present time’ because of
the concepts discussed in the preceding paragraphs. So, all real or perceived
insecurities arise from unwanted activities (be they political or otherwise) and
associated perceived or actual threats are considered as transitional security
issues.
In the context of post conflict context,
transition management is set of procedures, tools and strategies to guide and
govern the instable political situation by developing appropriate capacity to deal
with or respond to insecurity,
political instability, societal tensions, prevalent mistrust, vested interests-based
manipulations and horse-trading, mal-governance, violation of laws, and other
anomalies.
4. Methodology:
In this paper, I have used multiple methods to
gather information and their analysis. Most common methods used were reflections
of won work in this field for almost two decades, observations, review of related
research findings, content review of newspapers and online media, in-depth
discussion with ordinary people. Analysis is largely descriptive and
interpretative in nature.
5. Data
presentation and analysis: Transitional security issues and concerns
Several
interrelated security related issues and concerns appear in the situation of
transition. Some of the main security issues and concerns are discussed in the
following sub-sections:
5.1
Politicization and neutrality dilemma:
Politicization
is a major character of transition, especially in post conflict transition in
developing countries (Elhawary et. al., 2010). Nepal is precise example of
politicization where political interests override standard procedural aspects
(for example, dividing constitutional positions among the political
parties/leaders, political backup or protection to their supporters ignoring
standard set procedures, positive discriminations to their supporters and
negative biases towards those who do not belong to their parties (Bhattarai and
Wagle, 2010; Gautam, 2015; Ghimire, 2017; Sharma, 2013). This is established
phenomena in Nepal and now became socially accepted political culture. In this
situation, it is quite difficult to ensure security alone by security forces.
5.2
Human security at the time of transition:
In
addition to the perceived and actual insecurity created by the prolong
transition, human security is a major factor determining security situation at
the time of transition. Human security is a prime concern in the time of
transition, which covers food security, water security, health security, water
security, environmental security, social security (Upreti et. al, 2016; Upreti
et. al., 2015). Political parties are
very selective in interpreting and practicing public security issues. The Human
security is very complex and therefore requires comprehensive, coordinated and
concerted response strategy, which is difficult to achieve at the time of prolonged
political transition.
5.3
Dilemma of law-enforcement agencies:
In
the transition period, one of the operational difficulties observed was the
dilemma of security forces. In one side, the security forces have the responsibility
for law enforcement. On the other hand, they cannot control security
insensitive behaviours of very important persons (VIPS). For example, major
political parties of Nepal had organized mass meetings, rallies[1],[2]
and protests[3]
violating the protocol of COVID19[4] or
politicians did not respect the restricted some by district administration
offices if they organize mass meeting against the government. They feel brevity
to break the rule. Government authorities and public health experts were repeatedly
appealing to stay away from mass gatherings and follow the health protocol of WHO
and Ministry of Health and Population as preventive measure from COVID
infection[5].
However, neither leaders and supporters of political parties nor people
attending the gatherings respected the appeal. Security forces alone cannot
control sources of insecurity if key stakeholders (such as political parties,
local communities, etc.) do not cooperate.
5.4
Ensuring public security at the time of prolonged transition:
Public
security in general deals on protection of people, as well as public and
private properties and sensitive areas. The main aim of public security is to
achieve welling of citizens and prosperity of community through ensuring
people’s feeling of safe and secure (Ebnöther and Fluri 2005).
Even though ensuring public security is the primary function of state,
achieving it requires concerted action of government, security forces and public
(Upreti et., al. 2010). Public safety is also part of public security. One of the
main legal instruments for ensuring public security in Nepal is the Public
Security Act, 2046 (1989) (with four amendments[6])
which is still narrow in scope, and focuses on control then preventive measures.
Hence, collective efforts are required from government, political parties and
general public to ensure public security.
5.5
Behavioural effects in prolonged transition:
Public
political behaviour directly affects transitional security. According to Ake
(1975), political behaviour is an act by members of society that affects
distribution of power to make decision for that society. In this context, the power
relations shape behaviour of member of society and therefore it is ubiquitous
in nature, which is clearly observed in Nepal (Upreti et al., 2010). Once,
political behaviour starts disobeying standard social norms and procedures of
state, problem starts there and it severely affects transitional security and economic
aspects of the country.
In the context of armed conflict and civil war, literatures
often refer either state failure or political stability and instability
(Zartman, 1995; Cojanu and Popescu, 2007; 2010). They highlight that the situation of
instability comes when the state structures are not able to properly perform
the functions assigned to them (Zartman, 1995; Cojanu and Popescu, 2007).
However, the situation of Nepal is not state failure. Instead, Nepal’s
situation is the selective political obstructions in proper functioning of some
of the responsibilities of security and other structures. Theoretically, it can
be argued that political stability has been achieved in Nepal once the new
constitution is in place, federal political structure and majority government
are functioning in the country. Economic sector is operational. Nevertheless,
the political situation is not permitting to reach this conclusion because
political stability has to ensure the economic growth.
In
this context, Mădălina (2015) has analysed the influence of political behaviour
in stability and economic growth in Romania and concluded that political
stability is a pre-condition for sustainable economic growth of the country. This
applies everywhere. Hence, if Nepal is not able to achieve political stability,
for which security is a precondition, achieving economic growth and graduating
from least developed country will be affected.
5.6
Security governance, transition and modernization of security:
In
dealing of security at the time of prolong transition; strengthening of
security institutions is important. Strengthening security institutions means
improving security governance, modernizing and professionalizing security
forces, increasing transparency and accountability, developing capacity of
security intuitions and enhancing people-security forces relations (Upreti
2010; Bhattarai and Wagle, 2010; Upreti, 2012). Various legal and policy
frameworks are available to strengthening security institutions.
5.7 Adequacy and or deficiency in managing
transitional security:
Adequacy
and or deficiency in policy, strategy, legal provisions, financial and hum
resources matters in achieving transitional security. Adequate legal
arrangements, conducive policies, availability of financial and competent human
resources are some important conditions for effectiveness of security providers
and ensuring security service at the time of prolonged transition. Similarly, attitude
and behaviour of the security providers and security beneficiaries collectively
determines the effectiveness of managing security (Upreti, 2014). These all
factors have contributed to manage the transitional security.
5.8 Role of media and sense of responsibility:
Role
of media is crucial in shaping sense of security or insecurity and it is even truer
in transition (Ghimire and Upreti, 2011). Experiences from different context
show that the effects of audio-visual media are higher in creating security and
or insecurity compared to print media and most influential is the social media.
Wrong use of social media
can be disastrous. Mass exodus of North Indian population form Bangalore and
inflamed sentiments of people against killing of militant Burhan Wani in Kashmir
were clear example of how danger is the role of media in propagation of wrong
information and or dissemination of malicious information by social
media[7].
5.9 External support in transition:
One
of the important lessons to learn is to adapt very cautious approach on
external support in post conflict transition. The examples of two West African
cases – Sierra Leone and Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta clearly demonstrate
that externally supported reconstruction projects bring so many global
hegemonic discourses and creates complications (Arowosegbe, 2011). Likewise, the work of Robert Muggah provides an analysis external interventions in
post conflict security context of Afghanistan, Timor Leste, Sudan, Uganda,
Colombia and Haiti by focusing on disarmament, demobilization and reintegration
(DDR), and security-sector reform (SSR) from which it can be generalized
that the international aid in post
conflict security context are
conventional in their approaches and therefore not only ineffective but also
not able to address the transitional security challenges (Muggah, 2008). Hence, Nepal needs a very cautious
approach while accepting international support in security sector.
5.10 Public security management in
post-conflict transition:
As
country is still affected by the shadow of the armed conflict and its
consequences, public security management is a quite concern of Nepali people. Some of the main issues in managing security
are enforcement of laws, administration of justice and maintenance of public
order, properly handling the shared function between federal, provincial and
local levels (federal security structures to enforce federal laws, provincial
security structures to enforce state laws, etc.) dealing with diversity within
unity framework, exercising democratic values and norms, concerted action to
achieve win-win outcomes in contested issues, promoting local solutions for
local problems.
5.11 Strengthening operational security
in post- conflict transition:
One
of the most important issues is to strengthen operational security and
inter-institutional coordination, which is often neglected in the context of
post conflict transition (Arowosegbe, 2011). Management of post conflict
transition is not only complex but also requires knowledge, resources and
commitments (Upreti, 2012 and 2009). In
one side, state itself is weak because of the armed insurgency and on the other
side, it has to provide security to people in a situation when every powerful actor
wants to benefit from fluid situation of prolong transition.
5.12 Deficiency in shared responsibility
in managing transition:
It
is observed that some of the major issues and concerns related to managing
security during the prolong transition are mainly operational and they are relating
to effective coordination and collaboration between different agencies working
in ensuring security, proper coordination across the three tiers of government
(both horizontal and vertical coordination), lack of required resource
allocation. Hence, any state passing through prolonged transition have to
allocate required resources (policy, law, capable human resources) which is
often difficult and marginalized.
6. Security
decision in managing transition, existing provisions and challeges:
Making
decision in managing transition is quite important and this can be explained by
the following quadrant:
|
Importance |
|
|
|
|
Urgent
(focus on actions to be performed immediately and if not contained it will
create complexity) |
Not
urgent (the activities to be closely watch but no
immediate action is needed) |
||
|
Important
(focus
on the outcomes and contributions to mission, values and priority goals) |
Urgent
and important: This
is the most important and most urgent and therefore get first priority. In
this quadrant security, actors and transition managers have to concentrate
their efforts with priority and resources. |
Not
urgent but important: therefore security and transition
mangers and decision makers have to take action to control from escalation,
even if they are not immediate threats
|
|
|
Not
important (watch
closely but do not keep in priority for immediate action) |
Urgent
and not important: Security
actions have to be accomplished urgently but it is not so important so the
security decision makers have to accomplish these activities immediately with
low priority. |
Not
urgent and not important: The security decision makers can wait
to see how context develops but no need to take immediate action. Only
essential to be vigilant and alert but no immediate action needed. |
|
Source: Adapted from Convey, S. (1989),
The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful lessons in personal
change. New York: Simon and Schuster.
In the situation of transition, the
security decision makers have to assess the degree of importance and urgency
and make decision accordingly.
Existing
security mechanisms and practices: The existing security management in dealing with the prolong
transition is guided by combination of different legal, political, security,
economic mechanisms. The legal framework provides basis for ensuring security
by mobilising state security forces. Some example of the legal arrangements[8]
are the Constitution of Nepal, Army Act 2063 (2006) (with different amendments), National
Security Policy 2075; Police Act 2012 (1955) (with different amendments) and
Police Regulation, 2049 (1992), मुलुकी अपराध संहिता २०७४, सु शासन (व्यवस्थापन तथा संचालन ऐन २०६४
(with different amendments);
Armed Police Force Act 2058 (2001) (with
different amendments) and Armed Police Force Regulation, 2060 (2003), Nepal
Special Service Act 2042 (1985) (with different amendments), Public Security
Act 2046 (1989) (with
different amendments); The Privacy Act, 2075 (2018); The Espionage Act, 2018
(1962) (with different amendments); Nepal Special Service Act, 2042 (1985)
(with different amendments); Offence Against State And Punishment Act, 2046
(1989) (with different amendments); The Essential Goods Control (Empowerment)
Act, 2017 (1961) (with different amendments); The Essential Services
Mobilization Act, 2014 (1957) (with different amendments); The State Cases Act,
2049 (1992) (with different amendments); Some Public (Offences And Penalties)
Act, 2027 (1970) (with different amendments), and many more. State security
forces ae guided by the state’s legal arrangements.
Other related acts and
regulations shaping the management of transitional security are the Extradition
Act, 2055 (1989) (with different amendments); The Immigration Act, 2049 (1992)
(with different amendments) and the Immigration Regulation, 2051 (1994), the
Passport Act, 2024 (1997) (with different amendments) and the Passport
Regulations, 2059; (2003); Explosive Substance Act, 2018 (1961) (with different
amendments); Arms and Ammunition Act, 2019 (1963) (with different amendments)
and Arms and Ammunition Regulation, 1972
Further political
commitments and contradictions form different political parties and actors, availability
of security forces and their capabilities, economic interests of various groups
and actors are other importance factors affecting transitional security. Within
the above-described context, efforts have been made in dealing with current
transition.
Challenges: Some
of the major challenges identified at the time of prolonged transition are:
1)
Residual effects
of the CPN (M) Armed insurgency
2)
Complication in implementing
federal system and associated complications (inter-provincial
allocation of resources, managing unrealistic expectation of the radicalised
society)
3)
Political
manipulations of structural cause of conflict as means to achieve political
interests
4)
Growing unconventional
security issues such as recent air pollution[9], climate change, pandemics,
disasters, etc. and food, water, health security issues, migration,
poverty-inequalities, etc.
5)
Domination of
narrow political interests over national interests and priorities
6)
Penetration of
external vested interests through different means (youth radicalization,
funding for extremists, etc.)
7)
Potential risks of
geographical (e.g., Terai-Madesh) and ethnic radicalization (e.g., intolerances
and hate against particular group), and extremism
8)
Possibility of
politicization of religion and religious extremism
9)
Negative media/social
media effects (unfounded allegations and disinformation, misleading general
public)
10) Growing geo-strategic concerns and regional tensions
11) Potential
for external manipulation and radicalization of federalization issues (e.g.,
borders, natural resources, concurrent rights, etc.)
12) Intra and inter party tensions, splitting of political
parties and associated consequences
13) Politicization of human rights issues + selective
interests of international actors
14) Effects of changing global demographic dynamics: world’s population – reach 8 billion by 2030,
more than 9 billion in 2050 (Pakistan may grow to 349 million, up 134 percent
in 2050. In Afghans close to 75 million in 2050; India’s population will reach
1.6 billion by 2050) à effects in neighboring countries including Nepal
15) Abuse of feeling of injustice and civil unrest:
structural inequalities, unemployed frustrated youth and their manipulation
form ill intended actors,
16) Geo-strategic dynamics and interests of international
actors (e.g., Indo-China tension, Indo-Pacific Strategy, BRI, etc.),
17) Guided
emotion (people/activists) v/s perceived threats (security apparatus),
18) Public
trust v/s mistrust
19) Transitional
Justice (prosecution v/s reconciliation)
20) Freedom
of expression v/s sense of responsibility
7. Conclusions
When we discuss Management of prolonged
transition period from the security perspective, so many interrelated concepts
are often referred such as political development (including party building),
democratization (including democratization of political parties), state
building (including post-conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding),
institutional innovations and responsive public polices, effective resource
mobilization, good governance and so on. They are easily said than done.
Translation of these concepts need political commitment and bureaucratic
efficiency.
Responding to with prolong transition is a
complex phenomenon and requires concerted and
coordinated actions from all key actors with ability to devise right response
strategies. One of the main concerns in transition is to properly handle vested
interests of international actors, which
are often contested and controversial but influential.
Domestic tension in capturing
power, resources and position is another unavoidable security management concern
at the time of prolong transition.
8. Recommendations
Following points could make the basis for
ways forward:
·
Consensus in the agenda
of national interests, security and foreign policy concerns
·
Strengthen capacity of
security forces for maintaining public security
·
Strengthen rule of law,
legitimacy and public ownership
·
Proper analysis of actors, their strengths & weaknesses, networks,
behaviour, and strategies, content (issues and concerns), context (internal,
external) and forge appropriate response strategic options to achieve desired
result,
·
actors, context and
challenges to forge the right strategy,
·
Appropriate handling of
pervasive mistrust and hypersensitivity about the perceived security threats
(sensitizing, engagement and collaboration); civil-security relations.
·
Strengthen intelligence
and security analysis by acquiring right information from right sources at
right time,
·
Balancing between transparency
and confidentiality while managing prolong transition.
·
Invest in developing competent
human resources to deal with transitional challenges by strengthening National
Defense University, government policy think tank like PRI, IFA, etc.
·
Strengthen and modernize
security organizations and equip them with most latest technologies
·
Enhance the effectiveness
of public service delivery that will ultimately strengthen state-people
relationship.
·
Effectively implement National
Security Policy and Foreign Policy (mutual respect for each other’s territorial
integrity and sovereignty; non-interference in each other’s internal affairs;
respect for mutual equality; non-aggression and the peaceful settlement of
disputes; cooperation for mutual benefit; abiding faith in the Charter of the
United Nations; and value of world peace).
·
Multi-track
approach to deal with complex transitional security issues
·
Capacity matters:
conflict analysis, military, intelligence, civic engagement, communication
(IT), coalition building, coordination
for unified action; creating enable environment,
·
Forge right
strategy to deal with the role of media (spreading of sensational news with
commercial motivation or sponsored political interests; disseminate sensational
and escalatory, incomplete, biased or misleading news),
·
Prevent politicization
of state structures (especially security structures) for vested interests and weakening
of the institutions working for national interests.
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Bio note: Bishnu Raj Upreti
Having Master in Sociology (1994) from TU,
Nepal, and M.Sc. in Knowledge Systems Management (1998) & PhD in Conflict
Management (2001) from the Wageningen University the Netherland, Dr Bishnu Raj
Upreti did Post-Doc (2001-2003) from the University of London (King’s
College)/Centre for Environmental Studies, University of Surrey, UK. In 40
years of professional work, he has gained wider experiences from local to
international levels in the areas of research and development. He has records
of accomplishment of extensive research and publication with more than 60 books
and hundreds of articles on conflict, peace, state building, human security,
and related issues. He has led and conducted several research projects related
armed conflict, peace, human security, women in politics, state building,
business and peace, displacement
and distress, etc.
He has supervised 21 PhD students from different universities in Nepal and
abroad. He was frequently quoted nationally and internationally about Nepal’s
armed conflict and peace process. He has served as Executive Chairperson of the
government think tank Policy Research Institute (PRI) and successfully
accomplished the tasks assigned by the Cabinet to collect and analyse the
evidences of the border dispute at Susta, Limpiyadhura, Lipulek and Kalapani as
Coordinator of the team.
E-mail: bishnu.upreti@gmail.com
Phone number: 9851075448
[1]
https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2020/12/15/congress-holds-mass-rallies-to-proclaim-it-s-back-in-business-but-is-it
[2]
https://english.khabarhub.com/2021/21/164512/
[3]
https://thehimalayantimes.com/kathmandu/dahal-nepal-factions-mass-gathering-today-movement-largely-obstructed-in-the-capital
[4]
https://kathmandupost.com/valley/2021/02/11/whether-it-s-demonstration-by-oli-or-dahal-it-s-always-citizens-who-suffer
[5]
https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/local-administration-in-kathmandu-urges-people-not-to-participate-in-rallies-protests/
[6]
http://www.lawcommission.gov.np/en/archives/category/documents/prevailing-law/statutes-acts/public-security-act-2046-1989
[7] See
details in https://www.objectiveias.in/role-of-social-media-in-internal-security/
[8]
Compiled from a) http://www.lawcommission.gov.np; and b)
https://www.dcaf.ch/security-sector-legislation-federal-democratic-republic-nepal
[9] https://kathmandupost.com/national/2021/03/29/government-decides-to-shut-schools-for-four-days-as-air-pollution-reaches-hazardous-levels
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